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Are Liverpool Now Favourites for the Premier League Title?

Are Liverpool Now Favourites for the Premier League Title?
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It was always going to be a big weekend in the Premier League title race with Manchester City and Arsenal facing each other at the Etihad Stadium.

The game ended 0-0 and was disappointing in terms of quality but one team walked away happy on Sunday afternoon and that was Liverpool.

The Reds beat Brighton 2-1 at home and while it was not a convincing victory, it was enough to see Liverpool move 2 points clear of second place Arsenal and 3 points clear of third place Manchester City.

Speaking after the draw with Arsenal, Manchester City manager, Pep Guardiola said, “Always who is first is favourite,” before adding “The second favourite is Arsenal and we are third. It's not in our hands.”

Interestingly, it is the first time this season Manchester City are not considered favourites to win the Premier League title and that is why it is such a big moment.

According to many specialists, Liverpool now have a 48% chance of winning the 2023/24 Premier League title, with Manchester City having a 34% chance, and Arsenal just an 18% chance of winning the league this season.

If we look at the remaining fixtures for Liverpool, they have only 4 games remaining at home and one of them is against Sheffield United on Thursday night.

They will then face 5 away games from their remaining 8 in the Premier League at Manchester United, Fulham, Everton, West Ham, and Aston Villa.

That is a tough set of fixtures but Liverpool are undefeated in 9 of their last 10 away Premier League matches.

Manchester City have arguably the easiest run of remaining games, with their toughest coming at home against Aston Villa, which is up next, and away to Tottenham Hotspur, Brighton, and Fulham.

Like Liverpool, Manchester City also have 5 away games remaining this season.

Arsenal have perhaps the toughest set of fixtures but they will play 5 of their 9 remaining Premier League matches at home.

Two of those home games are against Aston Villa and Chelsea plus The Gunners must travel to Brighton, Tottenham Hotspur, and Manchester United.

Liverpool have dropped points at Brighton and Luton Town this season, so there is a chance they will drop more points on the road before the end of the campaign.

The last time there was a three team race for the Premier League title was in 2013/14, Manchester City won their game in hand and Liverpool dropped points in dramatic fashion against Chelsea and Crystal Palace.

Things are so tight at the top of the table that it is plausible two teams could finish on the same number of points.

That would see the title decided on goal difference, with Arsenal holding the advantage after 29 games with +46, Liverpool on +40, and Manchester City on +35.

With that in mind, there is every possibility Liverpool will go full strength with the aim of thrashing Sheffield United on Thursday night in a bid to improve their goal difference.

Liverpool are the favourites now but there are sure to be more twists and turns as the Premier League season concludes, with all 3 teams dropping points.

Home team
Away team
Probability %
1X2
Pred
Correct score
Avg. goals
Weather conditions
Coef.
Score
Live
coef.
EPL
76214
1
2 - 0
2.27
13°
1.07
1.07 13.00 26.00 no no no
FT
3 - 1(1 - 0)
-
- - -

Premier League

Premier League
OVERALL TABLE PTS GP W D L +/-
1
Manchester City 88 37 27 7 3 60
2
Arsenal 86 37 27 5 5 61
3
Liverpool 79 37 23 10 4 43
4
Aston Villa 68 37 20 8 9 20
5
Tottenham 63 37 19 6 12 10
6
Chelsea 60 37 17 9 11 13
7
Newcastle United 57 37 17 6 14 21
8
Manchester United 57 37 17 6 14 -3
9
West Ham 52 37 14 10 13 -12
10
Brighton 48 37 12 12 13 -5
11
Bournemouth 48 37 13 9 15 -12
12
Crystal Palace 46 37 12 10 15 -6
13
Wolverhampton 46 37 13 7 17 -13
14
Fulham 44 37 12 8 17 -8
15
Everton 40 37 13 9 15 -10
16
Brentford 39 37 10 9 18 -7
17
Nottingham Forest 29 37 8 9 20 -19
18
Luton Town 26 37 6 8 23 -31
19
Burnley 24 37 5 9 23 -36
20
Sheffield United 16 37 3 7 27 -66

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